The power transformer market will usher in a period of rapid development.
Transformer, as the main power equipment in the power transmission process in the power grid, is one of the common devices in the field of complete electrical equipment. In the transformer industry, China's market has grown rapidly and has now become the second largest market in the world. Judging from the current market situation, driven by the construction of smart grid, ultra-high voltage construction and grid renovation, and the development of power industry, China's transformer market has been fully activated and will usher in a new era of rapid development in the next few years.
Broad market prospects
In recent years, China's power demand has increased rapidly. The high-speed construction and investment of power grid have driven the market demand for power transmission and transformation equipment. The huge electric power construction funds have brought opportunities and challenges to the transformer industry, which has promoted the rapid development of the transformer industry. In 2011, the output of transformers nationwide reached 1.43 billion kVA, up 6.86% year-on-year. In 2011, there were 1,461 enterprises above designated size in China's transformer manufacturing industry, with sales of 290.140 billion yuan and total profits of 16.608 billion yuan. Asset size was 263.840 billion yuan, and product sales profit was 33.972 billion yuan. In 2013, the sales revenue of China's transformer industry was 368.034 billion yuan, up 16.07% year on year.
In 20122020, China's transformer market will enter a period of rapid development under the direct influence of domestic power grid construction and transformation, and the industrial scale will continue to increase. It is estimated that China's transformer output will exceed 2 billion kVA by 2015.
Some experts have analyzed that the growth rate of power transformers will remain at about 10% during the 12th Five-Year Plan period in the next few years driven by power transmission and distribution and grid construction. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the State Grid Corporation will invest more than 300 billion yuan in AC UHV construction. In 2015, a three-China AC UHV synchronous grid with three vertical and three horizontal lines will be formed, with 38 additional UHV substations, 260 million KVA of substation capacity and 26,000 kilometers of new UHV AC lines. Development of 15 DC projects with a total converter capacity of 230 million kilowatts and a total line length of 25,000 kilometers.
The transformation of the domestic rural power grid has provided a strong impetus for the increase in the demand for transformers in the market. China's new round of rural power grid upgrading has achieved positive results. As of November 2013, the two major power grid enterprises have completed a new round of rural power grid upgrading and invested 276.18 billion yuan in power construction in areas without electricity. According to the disclosed investment targets of the State Grid and the Southern Power Grid for the transformation of the rural power grid, the total investment of the two major power grid companies during the 12th Five-Year Plan period will exceed 500 billion yuan, with China's network expected to invest nearly 400 billion yuan and the Southern Power Grid expected to invest 111.6 billion yuan. The transformation of the rural power grid will directly increase the investment in the construction of the power grid and make a big contribution to the power equipment manufacturing industry. The transformer industry will usher in a new period of development opportunities.
New Energy Power Generation Brings New Opportunities for Transformers. From the point of view of some new energy power generation industries in China, the installed power generation capacity of wind power, photovoltaic power generation, garbage power generation, waste heat power generation, etc. has kept increasing. By the end of 2012, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in the country was 60.83 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth rate of 35%, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was close to 5,000 megawatts, and the additional installed capacity of waste heat power generation was about 800 megawatts.
Transformer is a necessary power transmission and distribution equipment in power generation industry, and the demand is closely related to the investment scale of power grid. The rapid development of new energy power generation industry has provided it with better development opportunities and has become an important direction for transformer manufacturers to seize market segments and expand business scope. At the same time, it also promotes the optimization of transformer product structure and technological innovation.
At present, the smart grid has entered an important stage of comprehensive construction. The intelligent construction of urban and rural power distribution networks will be fully opened. The smart grid and smart complete sets of equipment, smart power distribution and control systems will usher in a golden development period. This undoubtedly provides a good growth space for transformer manufacturing.
The reality is very skinny
At present, the overall level of the domestic transformer industry has basically reached the international first-class level. The quality level is almost the same as that of foreign products, but there is still a certain gap in details. Although China's transformer industry is about to usher in spring, power companies cannot take it lightly. In order to occupy a place in the highly competitive market, we must take customers as the center, do the details well, and create high-quality and high-performance products.
It is understood that the development of transformer manufacturing technology is mainly based on the characteristics of new products and new structures to develop appropriate technologies, and focuses on the development and application of new materials and new equipment in order to continuously improve the quality and reliability of products. However, the research and development of these new technologies require a large amount of capital investment and an increase in production costs. As the main component of the power grid, power transformer is a light industry, with material cost accounting for more than 60% of the total product cost. As the main raw material of transformer, the output of silicon steel sheet in China is very limited and has been relying on import for a long time. Transformer companies suffered from the shortage of silicon steel sheets. The sharp rise in the price of silicon steel sheets in that year caused many companies to have problems even in their survival. In addition, the fluctuation of copper price is also a serious problem facing the transformer industry. Due to the long period of transformer production and frequent changes in copper price during the production process, the price set when signing the contract is often inconsistent with the price actually produced. This is indeed a challenge for an industry with a large proportion of raw materials.
It is understood that the shortage of raw materials and components that restrict the development of transformers has been basically solved, which provides conditions for better development of transformer industry. However, there is still a certain gap in details. The main constraint factor of some distribution transformer production equipment in China is the low degree of automation and process assurance of key equipment related to transformer manufacturing. Although most production equipment can be made domestically, there is a lack of constant tension domestic winding equipment related to the mechanical strength of the body/coil. In addition, some distribution transformer manufacturers still have room for further improvement in efficiency, reliability and stability. These deficiencies will have an impact on the reliability of power grid operation, which will have a very negative impact on the local economic development and even the daily life of residents. At the same time, the maintenance time and cost of the power grid will increase significantly.
Enterprises Should Be Careful
Although the investment in the future will gradually increase to become a trend no matter from the voices of the central and local governments, it is difficult for the power companies to see the rapid sales unusually hot in the foreseeable period. Therefore, electric power enterprises should always feel the pulse of the market, treat all kinds of changes in the market with caution and try their best to avoid repeating the old ways of the past.
In addition, industry experts pointed out that many electric power enterprises in China follow the trend and decide their own product structure and management structure according to the market heat. The result of this is: in the beginning, they will make profits by producing products that meet the market demand, but in the long run, this practice is very unfavorable to the long-term development of the enterprises themselves, because abandoning long-term goals for short-term performance will ultimately only be a little-known small enterprise. Most German enterprises have a persistent spirit. Once they enter a certain industry, they will concentrate on doing a good job in this industry. They will never change their business mode because of Qian Jing in front of other industries. There is no doubt that this is their way of success and what our power enterprises lack.
Therefore, China's electric power enterprise industry still needs to broaden its industrial chain, not to put eggs in the same basket, but also to improve the comprehensive competitiveness of enterprises. A successful enterprise will not put all its investment into the industry, but will take into account other aspects and form multiple growth points so as to realize the diversified development of the enterprise. In this way, no matter the whole industry is in any state, enterprises with reasonable operation mode will maintain their own growth.
Broad market prospects
In recent years, China's power demand has increased rapidly. The high-speed construction and investment of power grid have driven the market demand for power transmission and transformation equipment. The huge electric power construction funds have brought opportunities and challenges to the transformer industry, which has promoted the rapid development of the transformer industry. In 2011, the output of transformers nationwide reached 1.43 billion kVA, up 6.86% year-on-year. In 2011, there were 1,461 enterprises above designated size in China's transformer manufacturing industry, with sales of 290.140 billion yuan and total profits of 16.608 billion yuan. Asset size was 263.840 billion yuan, and product sales profit was 33.972 billion yuan. In 2013, the sales revenue of China's transformer industry was 368.034 billion yuan, up 16.07% year on year.
In 20122020, China's transformer market will enter a period of rapid development under the direct influence of domestic power grid construction and transformation, and the industrial scale will continue to increase. It is estimated that China's transformer output will exceed 2 billion kVA by 2015.
Some experts have analyzed that the growth rate of power transformers will remain at about 10% during the 12th Five-Year Plan period in the next few years driven by power transmission and distribution and grid construction. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the State Grid Corporation will invest more than 300 billion yuan in AC UHV construction. In 2015, a three-China AC UHV synchronous grid with three vertical and three horizontal lines will be formed, with 38 additional UHV substations, 260 million KVA of substation capacity and 26,000 kilometers of new UHV AC lines. Development of 15 DC projects with a total converter capacity of 230 million kilowatts and a total line length of 25,000 kilometers.
The transformation of the domestic rural power grid has provided a strong impetus for the increase in the demand for transformers in the market. China's new round of rural power grid upgrading has achieved positive results. As of November 2013, the two major power grid enterprises have completed a new round of rural power grid upgrading and invested 276.18 billion yuan in power construction in areas without electricity. According to the disclosed investment targets of the State Grid and the Southern Power Grid for the transformation of the rural power grid, the total investment of the two major power grid companies during the 12th Five-Year Plan period will exceed 500 billion yuan, with China's network expected to invest nearly 400 billion yuan and the Southern Power Grid expected to invest 111.6 billion yuan. The transformation of the rural power grid will directly increase the investment in the construction of the power grid and make a big contribution to the power equipment manufacturing industry. The transformer industry will usher in a new period of development opportunities.
New Energy Power Generation Brings New Opportunities for Transformers. From the point of view of some new energy power generation industries in China, the installed power generation capacity of wind power, photovoltaic power generation, garbage power generation, waste heat power generation, etc. has kept increasing. By the end of 2012, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in the country was 60.83 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth rate of 35%, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was close to 5,000 megawatts, and the additional installed capacity of waste heat power generation was about 800 megawatts.
Transformer is a necessary power transmission and distribution equipment in power generation industry, and the demand is closely related to the investment scale of power grid. The rapid development of new energy power generation industry has provided it with better development opportunities and has become an important direction for transformer manufacturers to seize market segments and expand business scope. At the same time, it also promotes the optimization of transformer product structure and technological innovation.
At present, the smart grid has entered an important stage of comprehensive construction. The intelligent construction of urban and rural power distribution networks will be fully opened. The smart grid and smart complete sets of equipment, smart power distribution and control systems will usher in a golden development period. This undoubtedly provides a good growth space for transformer manufacturing.
The reality is very skinny
At present, the overall level of the domestic transformer industry has basically reached the international first-class level. The quality level is almost the same as that of foreign products, but there is still a certain gap in details. Although China's transformer industry is about to usher in spring, power companies cannot take it lightly. In order to occupy a place in the highly competitive market, we must take customers as the center, do the details well, and create high-quality and high-performance products.
It is understood that the development of transformer manufacturing technology is mainly based on the characteristics of new products and new structures to develop appropriate technologies, and focuses on the development and application of new materials and new equipment in order to continuously improve the quality and reliability of products. However, the research and development of these new technologies require a large amount of capital investment and an increase in production costs. As the main component of the power grid, power transformer is a light industry, with material cost accounting for more than 60% of the total product cost. As the main raw material of transformer, the output of silicon steel sheet in China is very limited and has been relying on import for a long time. Transformer companies suffered from the shortage of silicon steel sheets. The sharp rise in the price of silicon steel sheets in that year caused many companies to have problems even in their survival. In addition, the fluctuation of copper price is also a serious problem facing the transformer industry. Due to the long period of transformer production and frequent changes in copper price during the production process, the price set when signing the contract is often inconsistent with the price actually produced. This is indeed a challenge for an industry with a large proportion of raw materials.
It is understood that the shortage of raw materials and components that restrict the development of transformers has been basically solved, which provides conditions for better development of transformer industry. However, there is still a certain gap in details. The main constraint factor of some distribution transformer production equipment in China is the low degree of automation and process assurance of key equipment related to transformer manufacturing. Although most production equipment can be made domestically, there is a lack of constant tension domestic winding equipment related to the mechanical strength of the body/coil. In addition, some distribution transformer manufacturers still have room for further improvement in efficiency, reliability and stability. These deficiencies will have an impact on the reliability of power grid operation, which will have a very negative impact on the local economic development and even the daily life of residents. At the same time, the maintenance time and cost of the power grid will increase significantly.
Enterprises Should Be Careful
Although the investment in the future will gradually increase to become a trend no matter from the voices of the central and local governments, it is difficult for the power companies to see the rapid sales unusually hot in the foreseeable period. Therefore, electric power enterprises should always feel the pulse of the market, treat all kinds of changes in the market with caution and try their best to avoid repeating the old ways of the past.
In addition, industry experts pointed out that many electric power enterprises in China follow the trend and decide their own product structure and management structure according to the market heat. The result of this is: in the beginning, they will make profits by producing products that meet the market demand, but in the long run, this practice is very unfavorable to the long-term development of the enterprises themselves, because abandoning long-term goals for short-term performance will ultimately only be a little-known small enterprise. Most German enterprises have a persistent spirit. Once they enter a certain industry, they will concentrate on doing a good job in this industry. They will never change their business mode because of Qian Jing in front of other industries. There is no doubt that this is their way of success and what our power enterprises lack.
Therefore, China's electric power enterprise industry still needs to broaden its industrial chain, not to put eggs in the same basket, but also to improve the comprehensive competitiveness of enterprises. A successful enterprise will not put all its investment into the industry, but will take into account other aspects and form multiple growth points so as to realize the diversified development of the enterprise. In this way, no matter the whole industry is in any state, enterprises with reasonable operation mode will maintain their own growth.
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